#3 Buffalo vs. #5 Akron

Buffalo has taken care of business in this tournament with a tough win over a gritty and experienced Kent State team, and a workman like effort over Ball State in the semis. They are primed and ready to take that NCAA tournament bid tonight after having been the best team in the conference for much of the year. If that is going to happen though they are going to need another big game from F Max Bodreau. This goofball has been playing really well in this tournament and has lead the Bulls in scoring in each of their two wins. He is going to need to continue his increased scoring output against Akron’s excellent post defense for Buffalo to be successful. The Bulls are a tenacious defensive team who play decent offense. Their emphasis on good team defense should help them in this one as Akron is more athletic at just about every position. The zips have also been relying on hot outside shooting in this tournament. Getting after Akron’s shooters especially G Steve McNees who is a streaky shooter in the midst of a career hot streak is going to be a big key for Buffalo. They have to keep up the defensive pressure against the Zips and not let them get out to a big lead early. Buffalo can’t play Akron from behind. They need to open up a lead, control the pace, and not let Akron make one of their big runs. This is Akron’s fourth game in five days their are going to be a little bit tired unless they are able to get out and score some uncontested baskets on the break, or hit some open three pointers, then they can get by on adrenaline.  

Reggie Weatherspoon is a far better tactician than Keith Dambrot and has consistently gotten more out of the talent he has on his roster. Even though Dambrot has been to the last two MAC finals he has failed to seal the deal either time including an embarrassing loss in 2006 to a Miami team they dominated in the regular season. Dambrot has failed to find the winning formula with better teams than this one. I look for a big game out of Bull’s G Rodney Pierce on both ends of the floor which will help lead to another Akron collapse in Cleveland.

My Pick: Buffalo

#2 Ball State vs, #3 Buffalo

I never thought that Buffalo would make it past Kent State and into this game. I guess I underestimated them. I figured Ball State would end up here by virtue of their good seed, but I never expected them to be much of a challenge in it. I know its dangerous to write off a team like Ball State who has shown resiliancy all year, but I just can’t see a way that they sneak away with this game. Buffalo just has so much more depth that it really amplifies the short turnaround and gives them a strong advantage. The more they win the more dangerous the Bulls become.

My Pick: Buffalo

#1 Bowling Green vs. #5 Akron

Akron showed some heart in taking down the always dangerous Red Hawks last night. The McKnight’s when healthy and playing at the top of their game can’t be matched by any other front court in the conference. Bowling Green is not exceptionally skilled in the block, so I question weather or not they can play a physical game with Akron. This game could very well be determined by how its officiated. Always a scary thought in the MAC. It’s also possible that fatigue could be factor as Akron is on their third game in four days including Tuesday night’s overtime win over Toledo. I think Akron has enough in the tank to end Bowling Green’s improbable run.

My Pick: Akron

#2 Ball State vs. #7 Central Michigan

A far better match up on the gridiron than it is on the hardwood this battle between 2 of the 3 West division champs promises to be an ugly, poorly attended, slugfest. Ohio based MAC fans have little respect for the quality of  basketball played in the West Division, and will not be watching with great interest as they would expect either of these teams to be dispatched rather quickly in the next round by Buffalo who lead the stronger half of the MAC for most of the year. Despite the indifference of many MAC fans these two sub .500 squads will bring pride and intensity into this game, as both are in the midst of modest turnarounds for their once pitiful programs.

Ball State was on their way to a nice little season inching above the .500 mark and walking away with the West. Their last 3 games were a nightmare though and they lost to Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Eastern Michigan by the thinnest of margins, leaving them with a losing record and in a log jam at the top of the West division. It is hard to know what effect those kind of outcomes can have on a teams confidence. I look for them to bonce back emotionally and play a solid game in large part because of the leadership provided by G Brandon Lampley, and the spark they get from freshman F Jarrod Jones . I really like the way Brandon Lampley plays the game, he has is the quintessential MAC player; tough, undersized (6′ even), without a natural position, and always where he needs to be. Plus you have to admire any senior at Ball State who could survive the three coaching changes and bitter feuds in that program.

Central Michigan is playing well at the right time of year, and Marcus Vann is just so good when he wants to be that I am tempted to pick an upset here. The rumor that Vann has a stomach flue makes me reluctant to go through with that, as well as the memory of Central’s 44 point offensive output in Muncie just a few weeks ago (Ball State’s last win and Central’s last loss). I like the resiliency of Ball State alot more than I like a flue infected one man show that is Marcus Vann.

My Pick: Ball State

#3 Buffalo vs. #6 Kent State
I have not now nor have I ever been a part of the Buffalo Bull’s bandwagon. A hot start and the only decent non conference showing by a MAC team turned this traditional also ran into the conferences front runner for the better part of the season. They didn’t respond well giving up a sizable lead that cost them an outright title and the #1 seed to Bowling Green. Included in that mini collapse was a loss to the Golden Flashes just one short week ago. In that game Kent State’s experienced backcourt duo of Chris Singeltary, and Al Fischer both had big games with 19 and 15 points respectively.

The experience of the Flashes and the home court advantage they get by playing at the Q is invaluable. While Buffalo has overachieved all season, the Golden Flashes are just beginning to adjust to new coach Geno Ford and starting to regain their old form. Kent State has alot of pride and a MAC record long 20 win season streak that they are looking to extend. Al Fischer leads the way to another MAC tournament win for this group.

My pick:  Kent State

#1 Bowling Green vs. #9 Ohio

The 2008-2009 Bowling Green Falcons are without question the worst team ever seeded #1 in the Mid American Conference Tournament. It isn’t even close. They have lost games this year to: Savannah State, Central Arkansas, and Eastern Michigan. I find it very hard to praise this team, but they have  more  MAC wins than all but one other team in this conference including two wins over Ohio the last of which was a 75-41 beat down on the last day of the regular season.  They have senior leadership with all conference players G Brian Moten and F Nate Miller and a couple extra days off under their belt.  So as skeptical as I am of Bowling Green’s championship credentials I cant deny that they are clearly superior to Ohio.

My Pick: Bowling Green

#4 Miami vs. #5 Akron

A rematch of the of the classic championship game from two years ago this clash of styles promises to be the game of the day. The crafty veteran strategist Charlie Coles will try and teach yet another lesson in basketball to Akron’s semi retarded Keith Dambrot. Dambrot is of course famous for “coaching,” LeBron James in High school but he is also known around the MAC for having some of the conferences most talented teams and an empty trophy case.  Charlie Coles is famous for both leading Wally Szerbeack and company to the Sweet Sixteen in 1999 and having a massive heart attack in Kalamazoo a year earlier where he lay legally dead for two minutes before being revived. So if Coles doesn’t keel over between now and then, and if Dambrot doesn’t get lost on his way to the arena this will be a very intreguing coaching match up.

The teams on the court are pretty evenly matched. I would give a slight edge to Akron for pure athletic talent especially in the front court where Brett and Chris McKnight are a formidable duo. Miami isn’t void of talent either as they sport the MACPOY Michael Bramos however he does his damage on the wing and not in the blocks. This game will come down to the decision making of the guards and the abilities of the coaches to adjust. Advantage to Miami in each case. Akron is also coming off of an overtime game played late into Tuesday evening. That short recovery time can’t help their bigs.

My Pick: Miami

While Michigan State has been realigning the Big Ten and returning to their rightful place in the hierarchy of that conference the Western Michigan Broncos have fallen from the rank of contender in the MAC and are now on the list of also rans. The fall has been swift since big man Joe Reitz moved on to the Baltimore Ravens. His presence has been missed badly as Western’s frontcourt has deteriorated into a league wide joke. The lack of intensity in pursuing rebounds has become the calling card of this team.  They are dead last in the MAC in rebounding margin and field goal pct. That is a poisonous combination that has ensured defeats in many close games this season. All everything G David Kool has played very well at times this season, and is probably an all conference performer. However without any supporting cast his outstanding junior season has been a waste. If some of these Freshman bigs don’t grow up this off season the only Mr. Basketball ever to attend Western Michigan is going to graduate without a conference championship, or a post season appearance. That would be an incredible waste.

While things are looking bleak in Kalamazoo bronco fans can always take solace in the fact that their program is still in better shape than Eastern’s. Eastern Michigan is just flat out bad. The coaching staff is overmatched. There are some decent players on this team but one gets the feeling when watching them labor through countless anemic performances that they are better individually than they are collectively. This in my mind speaks to the inability of the coaching staff to put players in a position to be successful. It is my opinion that a change in the leadership of this program is necessary, but this a cash strapped University is barely able to finance its athletic programs as it is so a buyout is probably out of the question (especially since they just bought out the football coach in December).  My guess is that Charles Ramsey makes it back for one more season with a healthy Carlos Medlock available in what will be a make or break year for him. He might be able to squeeze out an above .500 season and save his job, but long term there is no way that he gets EMU back to the level Ben Braun had them at in the late 90’s.

Here is a list and brief synopsis of my February games that helped me to the above conclusions:

2/3 Akron @ Eastern Michigan: A late 3 pointer by Will Cooper helped get Eastern get above that oh so important 40 pt. mark in this  78-41 blowout of blowouts. The only mildly interesting thing about this contest was watching LeBron’s former high school coach Keith Dambrot stomp up and down the sidelines and yelling during free throw attempts. After the departure of Dan Dakich from Bowling Green and Jay Smith from Central Michigan I have been trying to determine who the biggest tool in the MAC is. Well congratulations Keith Dambrot you now hold that distinction.

2/15 Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan: EMU battled well in this game against the top team in the Mid American Conference but never seriously threatened. This spark of life they showed against the Bulls was lead by some tough defense by Tyler Jones and big post play by Brandon Bowdry who for one game at least resisted the urge to drift outside and take bad jumpers. Bowdry’s 11pt. 9 reb. day was nice but ultimately the offensively challenged Eagles had nowhere to go when they needed big bucket to cut into Buffalo’s comfortable lead and lost this one 58-49. The Convo was graced by the presence of Mr. Ed Hightower who stayed in town after the Michigan game to officiate this one. He was frequently out of position, used improper mechanics, and made some head scratching calls against both teams. He was slightly less animated without the TV cameras though.

2/21 Eastern Illinois @ Western Michigan:  As part of ESPN’s Bracketbuster weekend the Broncos hosted a bottom feeder from the OVC,  and gave one away on their home floor 59-57. It is a rare occurrence for the Broncos to actually outrebound an opponent, but on this day they did by a double digit margin (39-29) unfortunately they were only able to shoot 30% from the field and came up just short at the end of the game. Coach Hawkins was T’d up early in the second half allowing EIU to open up a 6 pt. lead once they made both free throws and scored on the ensuing possession. Nice going Hawk your T was the difference in this one.

2/25 Iowa @ Michigan State: This was my first trip to Breslin in awhile so I was just happy to be there and look the place over again.  It was a sleep walking performance for the Spartans who never got their transition game going in this 62-54 win. Delvon Roe had his best game as a Spartan with 16 hard earned points, and Korie Lucious set his career high as well with 12. These two freshmen showed a brief flash of what they are capable of, and it was enough on this night to beat a bad Iowa team. They are going to need more in March from everyone else if this is going to be a special season.

2/28 Western Michigan @ Toledo: Toledo gets a nice home crowd for a team that has only won 4 games this season…well make that five games as the nose dive that is WMU’s 08-09 season continues. Despite a furious late rally that saw them close a 10 point to lead to one with 4 seconds left the Broncos feel short in this one 63-62. They were not able to secure the rebound of a missed free throw attempt with 4.8 seconds remaining even though Toledo had no one but the shooter to compete for the board. Another frustrating loss in a frustrating season. The 9-19 Broncos close out the season with back to back home games against division rivals Ball State and Central Michigan at home, lets hope they play with some pride. Either way though this is going to be a 20 loss season for WMU.