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#7 Central Michigan vs. #10 Eastern Michigan:

This is really a tough game to figure out. Eastern is playing their best basketball all season right now winning 4 in a row (half of their win total) going in to this game. Central has been surging for the last month as well including a come from behind win over rival Western Michigan that earned them a share of the MAC West title. Having a share of the MAC West title is kind of like having a share of Citibank right now with the 3 co champions all well below .500 overall, but it still counts for something when your program has been down as long CMU’s.

Eastern won two very close games in the regular season this year against the Chips; one in double OT and the other with clutch free throw shooting in the last few seconds. It is difficult to see those two wins giving the Eagles an advantage in this one since the margin was so razor thin. If anything I feel like the emotional edge is with CMU since it is so difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season. I also like Marcus Vann CMU’s big PF a whole lot. This guy plays a very physical style in the post, one that Eagle forward Brandon Bowdry is often reluctant to play preferring to float on the perimeter and look for chances to fire up a three pointer which he rarely makes. Vann should dominate inside putting pressure on EMU’s inferior backcourt to score which should spell the end of Eastern’s season.  The only chance the Eagles have is if on again off again head case Justin Dobbins shows up and has a big game to counter Vann’s aggressiveness. I just don’t see it happening.

My Pick: Central Michigan

#6 Kent State vs. #11 Northern Illinois:

Kent State is another team that has been playing really well this last month of the season. The Golden Flashes are usually among the elite in this conference however thanks to a coaching change and slow start to the season they were passed up by most of their East division rivals early on and not quite able to recover in time falling one game out of a bye, and being forced to play an extra game this week. Kent also benefits from a sizeable home court advantage in this tournament. Most of their fans and alumni are in metropolitan Cleveland so they usually bring a nice contingent of folks to the Q.

Northern Illinois is just a plain lousy team. They do nothing particularly well, and have no sign of improvement from midnight madness through today. They are coached by Ricardo Patton a notorious hot head who provides the only drama in many of NIU’s games as anxious fans wonder if he will be ejected for lighting into an official. This game shouldn’t be close.

My Pick: Kent State

#8 Western Michigan vs. #9 Ohio

After chocking away a 14 point lead and the outright MAC West title (along with the #2 seed and bye into the quarterfinals)in the final 10 minutes of Sunday’s game against Central Michigan the Western Michigan Broncos now draw the only team from the East division that they were able to beat this season in cross divisional play and the only team in the conference playing as bad as they are. This is the only reason I would even entertain the notion of predicting a win for the worst rebounding and worst shooting team in the MAC.

David Kool has not been enough to carry this team this season despite some very impressive individual performances, and he won’t be able to carry them through this tournament.  Not with the horrific rebounding efforts they have been famous for this year. I don’t care who they are playing. I don’t care that Ohio got torched by BGSU on Sunday like a team that has quit on their season. I don’t care that WMU beat them by double digits at their place this season. I refuse to pick a team that is as poor on the glass as WMU. Rebounding is more about desire than talent. Western doesn’t have the desire, and that is why they lose.

My Pick: Ohio

#5 Akron vs. #12 Toledo

Along with Kent Akron brings the largest amount of fans into the Q every season which makes this a virtual home game for the Zips. They are going to need all the support they can get after a very emotional loss to Kent State that ended their regular season and cost them a share of the East division title and the #1 seed in this tournament.  They’ll square off against a Toledo team that has been overmatched for much of the season, competing with only a handful of scholarship players. Toledo doesn’t win much away from home either going 1–17 away from Savage Hall. Senior gurard Tyrone Kent can’t do everything although a big game from him might keep it close…for a while.

My Pick: Akron

Continue reading »]]>  Now that Michigan State has clinched a share of the Big Ten title like most Michigan State fans I have been overcome by a profound sense of relief. Not being able to close out the Big Ten in 03 and 04 to Wisconsin had given Spartan fans a sort of psychosis. It was reinforced last season in the Big Ten tournament when the last 10 minutes of that semi final game turned into a Wisconsin free throw parade. If Michigan State had failed to clinch on Sunday at Illinois (which is another place that they have had trouble winning in the past mostly because of Dee Brown) it would have been a very tense environment around that program.  That win should allow them to play Purdue on Sunday without the weight of the world on their shoulders, and go into the Big Ten tournament as the #1 seed relaxed and focused.

While Michigan State has been realigning the Big Ten and returning to their rightful place in the hierarchy of that conference the Western Michigan Broncos have fallen from the rank of contender in the MAC and are now on the list of also rans. The fall has been swift since big man Joe Reitz moved on to the Baltimore Ravens. His presence has been missed badly as Western’s frontcourt has deteriorated into a league wide joke. The lack of intensity in pursuing rebounds has become the calling card of this team.  They are dead last in the MAC in rebounding margin and field goal pct. That is a poisonous combination that has ensured defeats in many close games this season. All everything G David Kool has played very well at times this season, and is probably an all conference performer. However without any supporting cast his outstanding junior season has been a waste. If some of these Freshman bigs don’t grow up this off season the only Mr. Basketball ever to attend Western Michigan is going to graduate without a conference championship, or a post season appearance. That would be an incredible waste.

While things are looking bleak in Kalamazoo bronco fans can always take solace in the fact that their program is still in better shape than Eastern’s. Eastern Michigan is just flat out bad. The coaching staff is overmatched. There are some decent players on this team but one gets the feeling when watching them labor through countless anemic performances that they are better individually than they are collectively. This in my mind speaks to the inability of the coaching staff to put players in a position to be successful. It is my opinion that a change in the leadership of this program is necessary, but this a cash strapped University is barely able to finance its athletic programs as it is so a buyout is probably out of the question (especially since they just bought out the football coach in December).  My guess is that Charles Ramsey makes it back for one more season with a healthy Carlos Medlock available in what will be a make or break year for him. He might be able to squeeze out an above .500 season and save his job, but long term there is no way that he gets EMU back to the level Ben Braun had them at in the late 90’s.

Here is a list and brief synopsis of my February games that helped me to the above conclusions:

2/3 Akron @ Eastern Michigan: A late 3 pointer by Will Cooper helped get Eastern get above that oh so important 40 pt. mark in this  78-41 blowout of blowouts. The only mildly interesting thing about this contest was watching LeBron’s former high school coach Keith Dambrot stomp up and down the sidelines and yelling during free throw attempts. After the departure of Dan Dakich from Bowling Green and Jay Smith from Central Michigan I have been trying to determine who the biggest tool in the MAC is. Well congratulations Keith Dambrot you now hold that distinction.

2/15 Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan: EMU battled well in this game against the top team in the Mid American Conference but never seriously threatened. This spark of life they showed against the Bulls was lead by some tough defense by Tyler Jones and big post play by Brandon Bowdry who for one game at least resisted the urge to drift outside and take bad jumpers. Bowdry’s 11pt. 9 reb. day was nice but ultimately the offensively challenged Eagles had nowhere to go when they needed big bucket to cut into Buffalo’s comfortable lead and lost this one 58-49. The Convo was graced by the presence of Mr. Ed Hightower who stayed in town after the Michigan game to officiate this one. He was frequently out of position, used improper mechanics, and made some head scratching calls against both teams. He was slightly less animated without the TV cameras though.

2/21 Eastern Illinois @ Western Michigan:  As part of ESPN’s Bracketbuster weekend the Broncos hosted a bottom feeder from the OVC,  and gave one away on their home floor 59-57. It is a rare occurrence for the Broncos to actually outrebound an opponent, but on this day they did by a double digit margin (39-29) unfortunately they were only able to shoot 30% from the field and came up just short at the end of the game. Coach Hawkins was T’d up early in the second half allowing EIU to open up a 6 pt. lead once they made both free throws and scored on the ensuing possession. Nice going Hawk your T was the difference in this one.

2/25 Iowa @ Michigan State: This was my first trip to Breslin in awhile so I was just happy to be there and look the place over again.  It was a sleep walking performance for the Spartans who never got their transition game going in this 62-54 win. Delvon Roe had his best game as a Spartan with 16 hard earned points, and Korie Lucious set his career high as well with 12. These two freshmen showed a brief flash of what they are capable of, and it was enough on this night to beat a bad Iowa team. They are going to need more in March from everyone else if this is going to be a special season.

2/28 Western Michigan @ Toledo: Toledo gets a nice home crowd for a team that has only won 4 games this season…well make that five games as the nose dive that is WMU’s 08-09 season continues. Despite a furious late rally that saw them close a 10 point to lead to one with 4 seconds left the Broncos feel short in this one 63-62. They were not able to secure the rebound of a missed free throw attempt with 4.8 seconds remaining even though Toledo had no one but the shooter to compete for the board. Another frustrating loss in a frustrating season. The 9-19 Broncos close out the season with back to back home games against division rivals Ball State and Central Michigan at home, lets hope they play with some pride. Either way though this is going to be a 20 loss season for WMU.